In Moody own words;
3) If default is avoided, the Aaa rating would likely be affirmed after any review. Whether the outlook on the rating would be stable or negative would depend upon whether the outcome of the negotiations included meaningful progress toward substantial and credible long-term deficit reduction. Such reduction would imply stabilization within a few years and ultimately a decline in the government's debt ratios, including the ratio of debt to GDP.Therefore parceiros, listen to how this drill plays out. After a small crisis, Presidente Hopium gathers with the Congressional leadership on the White House lawn, announces agreement on a debt limit increase combined with a tax free profit repatriation for corporatists to bring capital back from abroad to hire more workers, blah, blah. Nothing that helps real gente will come from that, the deficits will balloon out more, Tiffany stays busy, and the downgrades will come like a flock of swans.